Fractal Forecasting Downloads Torrent
A U.S. District Court ordered BitTorrent to shut down its torrent file-sharing service yesterday, as part of a $110 million class-action lawsuit brought by the Recording Industry Association of America. The copyright group represents more than 14,000 enterprising musicians, most of whom are small-time, independent artists. Based on a Reuters story from last month, it’s not really clear how the case will affect the larger file sharing industry, since most of the artists represented by the RIAA already don’t make much money, and the internet giant is more a platform for them to sell their works to.
Table 2 illustrates forecast models and their forecasts for the Bitcoin (BTC) price over the last three years of 2020 (since early Jan 2020) based on two distinct types of cryptocurrency markets including exchange and OTC market data. In particular, we use a seasonal ARIMAX model [28] for the first season, and a generalized additive model (GAM) [29] with an ARIMAX framework for the second season. Both models were estimated using the `mixed_regression` package in R (with the `gamlss` package for the GAM). The model selection was based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the adjusted goodness-of-fit (GoF). Remarkably, we find that the MARIMAX model is a candidate for short-term cryptocurrency forecast and the ARIMAX model is a good option for a medium-long-term cryptocurrency forecast.
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